NHS to brace itself

NHS to brace itself

As the number of new swine flu cases in England almost doubles, the NHS has been told to brace itself for action as it's expected to put extra strain on the service.

The number of new cases reported in England over the past week has nearly doubled to 53,000. In Scotland, there was a slight rise to 14,650 as hospitals report record numbers of patients being treated for the pandemic.

It comes as more and more people are being admitted into intensive care and the number of deaths in the UK hit 128.

Ian Dalton

Ian Dalton, head of flu planning at the NHS, said if the rises continued critical care would be expanded.

Over the last few months, plans have been drawn up to double the number of intensive care beds to over 4,000.

Dalton said, "If current trends continue we are going to have to surge capacity. My message now is that the NHS must be ready."

In England, there are 99 people in critical care beds - the highest since the pandemic began. One in four of the patients in intensive care is under the age of 16.

But it is the rate of admission to these specialist beds which is causing particular concern.

During the summer, about 1 in 10 patients in hospital with swine flu ended up in critical care, compared with one in five now, the BBC report.

Sir Liam Donaldson

Sir Liam Donaldson, the government's chief medical officer, said the pattern emerging on intensive care wards was "mystifying."

There are no signs the flu strain has mutated to become more deadly, in fact the latest worst-case scenario for total deaths over the winter has been reduced from 19,000 to 1000.

Yet, Sir Liam said, "What we are starting to worry about is the sustained pressure over the winter. The NHS has never before had a run from mid July to March and April with intensive infectious disease like this."

Latest estimates suggest there could be another 35,000 admissions in the coming months - more than 5000 of which could require intensive care support.

Sir Liam said while the 1,000 death-toll was low even compared to the normal number of deaths from seasonal flu, which normally stands at about 6,000 to 8,000.

As the death toll has risen, health officials said the disease appeared to be affecting younger people and those without pre-existing health conditions. With one in three of the deaths of people who had no underlying health problems, "We don't understand why this has happened," said Sir Liam.

Most of those who have died, were aged under 65, and more than half were under 45.

Vaccine

Vaccinations of health and social care workers has begun, and from Monday GPs will start to receive batches of the jab to give to pregnant women and people with long-term conditions who are a priority.

The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency has launched a new website for healthcare professionals to report suspected reactions to the vaccine so any unusual or unexpected problems can be picked up quickly, the British newspaper, The Telegraph report.

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